1. Kevin Rudd's tendency to overpromise and under-deliver on big ticket items (e.g. ETS) was a serious problem.
2. By starting major inquiries into every conceivable piece of public policy Labor became caught up in the problem of having too many balls in the air. They became tagged as an outfit that was all talk and no action.
3. The faceless factional leaders problem still plagues the ALP. The notion that key factional players move the deck chairs as they wish, sometimes in reaction to the latest polls, is a bad look and was easily blown-up by the Liberals and the media.
4. A major leadership change such as removing a popularly elected Prime Minister so close to a general election was bound to cause difficulties. The risks of such a move had to be very carefully weighed. With events moving quickly during the leadership challenge it's not clear all the pros and cons were carefully weighed up. In the upshot Labor was hamstrung from arguing that it had been a sound and diligent Government because the Liberals simply responded that if this was the case why did Labor sack a first term Prime Minister just prior to the election.
5. The hostile anti-labour movement Murdoch media machine, so powerful in Australia, was a serious negative factor for Labor and will have to be permanently factored in for the ALP or disarmed in some way.
6. An upset and distraught ex PM in Kevin Rudd was something of a ‘loose cannon' during the election campaign. On reflection earlier thinking should have gone into avoiding a near unmanageable situation.
7. Unpopular State ALP governments in QLD and NSW impacted severely on Labor's vote in these states. Conversely well accepted state governments in VIC, SA and TAS had a mildly positive effect.
8. There is a state-of-origin factor now in play - or there was in the recent election. Julia the home town girl did well in VIC and SA but the Rudd removal played out to our detriment in QLD.
9. Labor clearly lost a significant proportion of its left or progressive base to the Greens - how damaging this was at the 2010 election is difficult to say because many of these votes still amounted to ALP preferences. The medium to long term may (or may not) be more of a worry for the ALP.
10. The trade union movement that was so active and motivated in the 2007 election was more muted in its support for the ALP in 2010.
11. There is a long history of first-term Federal Governments being punished in the ballot box. It has something to do with the gap between the public's high expectations upon the new government coming to office and the inevitably disappointing reality of their delivery or under-delivery.
12. Tony Abbott and the Liberals successfully used the small target approach during the campaign. Abbott implemented the KISS principle with remarkable discipline. Labor underestimated his ability to stay focused and on-message. To some extent because the public and media expected him to slip up badly he had only up-sides to gain from avoiding major slip-ups.
13. Labor ran a campaign that was not disciplined and focused. Messages kept changing because of fresh developments - the leaks early in the campaign threw the early plans out the window. Labor's chopping and changing of messages and strategy during the five weeks was a marked negative.
14. Labor's poor handling of the home insulation issue and to a lesser extent the BER cost Labor votes. These key stimulus planks were tarnished, and muted Labor's ability to get full credit for its successful handling of the GFC.
15. The issue of the mining tax was poorly handled in the first instance and became a focal point of opposition in the resource rich states. Even in its modified form after Julia Gillard became Prime Minister the vested interests in the mining states continued to use this as a weapon against Federal Labor. It did cost votes. Yet however designed, this justifiable taxation measure would be use by vested interests and anti-Labor political forces to damage Labor.
16 November 2010
